This is the third post in a series explaining how to use momentum. If you wandered here by mistake, and you prefer your explanations at an intermediate or beginner level first, go there, have a read, and come back.
Like always, I do not have all the answers. This is a working document, and it may well be added to as I go along.
Back? Good. Let’s get on with it then.
What are the chances of me going first in a turn?
OK, so you have momentum banked, and you have one more than your opponent. What are the chances of you going first?
I have constructed a handy table to help you.
So, the chance of going first rapidly increases past even a single point of momentum. So, when you are balancing out your desire to go first with spending momentum, bear in mind that even a couple more points than your opponent really gives you the edge for initiative next round.
When is it worth using Bonus Time for an extra dice?
Well, to cut a long story short, in the same way with the first turn calculations above, if you really, really need a certain result on your playbook, more dice means a higher chance. So let’s assume you want to maximize your chances of a good result, but you haven’t got a great deal of momentum to spare.
Let’s look at Mist again.
So, Mist is going for the goal, and he needs to either score three hits to trigger a momentous Where’d They Go? or four hits to trigger a momentous double dodge.
Let’s look at the chances of success using either his normal TAC 4, or his effective TAC 5 against different target defenses.
Again, thanks to this link for the calculator.
As we can see, a single point of TAC higher makes a very large difference. Against your average DEF 4+ / ARM 1 player, the odds of getting those three hits jumps from 6% to 19%. Still not huge, and I think he would have been better off buying that character play with influence, but it is a big difference.
So, let’s look at someone else. This time, let’s look at Ox.
Ox, in true form, wants to hurt someone. He is unable to charge, and he wants to maximize the first hit. Should he use an extra dice from Bonus Time?
Again, let’s look at the spread against different defences, with his TAC 7, or TAC 8 with Bonus Time. Against a typical DEF 4+ / ARM 1 player again, we can see that there is an increase, but it is less pronounced. This would have an even smaller effect if he charged, as (effectively) that extra dice is a smaller proportion of the overall dice pool.
There are some caveats for this though, especially when it comes to attacks. Firstly, he has 0% chance to cause a wrap around unless he rolls an extra dice. He might also find that as he is probably generating an extra point of momentum per hit he can spend some as he makes further attacks. It depends on the playbook, in this case butchers have a lot of high results that cause momentous damage. This could well mean it would be more in Ox’s interest to use bonus time on attacks than, say, Honour, who has no momentous results past the first three columns.
This is more clear cut, especially as you have more to gain (and lose) if you miss a kick. Re-printed here for your convenience is the table from my kicking guide.
So, if you have a KICK of 3, and are making a standard shot at goal, you can see a modest increase from 87% to a 93% chance to hit goal. Not huge, but you will have to make a value judgement as to the consequences if you miss that shot. Where will the ball end up? What will happen to your potentially exposed striker?
Thanks for reading. See you next week.